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11/03/08 10:00 AM EST

Mailbag: How many years for Manny?

Beat reporter Ken Gurnick answers Dodgers fans' questions

Andruw Jones is concentrating on his conditioning and losing weight this offseason. (Getty Images)
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In re-signing Manny Ramirez, is it possible to look at a longer contract to land him? Hold him for three or four productive years and trade him to an American League team as his defensive skills diminish?
-- Tom P., Sacramento, Calif.

Sure, but it's also possible to be stuck holding a ticking time bomb. If the Red Sox had to eat $8 million in salary and tear up two option years just to trade Ramirez at age 36 while he was still a feared hitter, how tradeable will he be at ages 41 or 40 or 39 with $25 million or $50 million or $75 million remaining and his skills (including his offensive skills) diminishing?

Unless your name is Barry Bonds, history shows that three or four more productive years at his age is not likely. Several years ago you could have taken a home loan with a huge balloon payment due about now and figured there'd be plenty of value remaining for it to somehow work out. Nobody worried about the possible downside.

But if the Dodgers wind up under water with a long-term commitment to Ramirez, there won't be a government bailout. The risk is real, especially for a National League team without the designated hitter. And one more thing: Agent Scott Boras views free agency as an evolving process that utilizes player patience to create a bidding frenzy. Nothing happens quickly and that's the way he likes it.

The Dodgers can't just hurry up and sign Ramirez, even if they want to. They don't have that power. In fact, while the Dodgers wanted to make a quick offer this weekend, the two sides couldn't even agree on a time and place to meet.

How does the struggling economy impact the decisions of GMs around the league (especially in hard-hit Southern California) to sign the big-money free agents this year?
-- Chuck A., Huntington Beach, Calif.

Here's general manager Ned Colletti's answer: "I don't believe any sports franchise will be immune to it. Looking at it from a personal and professional standpoint, a lot of people are really struggling.

"That carries over into baseball at some point. I can't see how it wouldn't. I'm not a financial expert, but I've got friends in other sports and they're starting to see some reaction to it, in the fan base and the no-show factor. We'll see. It's a precarious time. It's tough to say right now."

What are the Dodgers and Andruw Jones doing in the offseason to address his hitting woes?
-- Dan K., Nipomo, Calif.

According to Colletti, Jones is concentrating on his conditioning and losing weight. In addition to the knee that required surgery, one of many theories on Jones' horrible season was just being out of shape.

Teammates and scouts have suggested that his downward spiral became mental, one comparing his clueless approach at the plate to a golfer with the yips. If that's true, all the coaching and batting practice in the world wouldn't necessarily make any difference. A change of scenery might, and he's told teammates he'd rather not return, but there's $21 million remaining on his contract, so a trade is virtually inconceivable.

Have a question about the Dodgers?
Ken GurnickE-mail your query to MLB.com Dodgers beat reporter Ken Gurnick for possible inclusion in a future Inbox column. Letters may be edited for brevity, length and/or content.
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I think if we take stock of what has happened this past October, it seems more obvious than ever that you truly need a dominant ace to get far in October. When presented with a Sabathia/Peavy type opportunity, should the Dodgers not pass it up?
-- Jeff K., Palmdale, Calif.

Teams need pitchers to step up in the pressure of the postseason, but it's not necessarily the highest-paid, most-famous pitchers. Sabathia and Peavy didn't make it to this World Series. In fact, neither have ever been in a World Series. In fact, one year ago, which pitcher from the Phillies or Rays could have been substituted for Sabathia or Peavy as dominant starters the Dodgers should get?

Cole Hamels? James Shields? Scott Kazmir? Hamels was no more dominant during this season than Chad Billingsley; Hamels just pitched a lot better in October.

How many pitchers on either the Phillies or Rays were high-priced free agents like Sabathia or came with huge multiyear contracts like Peavy? None. That said, the Dodgers will probably make a run at both of them, even though the franchise's results with multiyear contracts in the past decade is worse than abysmal.

The Dodgers have 14 potential free agents. Which ones would get them back a first-round Draft pick as compensation?
-- Stan J., Tacoma, Wash.

That depends on several factors, including which teams sign them. The only two of the 14 that are Type-A free agents are Manny Ramirez and Derek Lowe. For the Dodgers to receive compensation for losing either, the Dodgers must offer salary arbitration by Dec. 1 and the player must decline.

The Dodgers would receive either a first-round pick from the signing team if that team picks in the second half of the first round, or a second-round pick from the signing team if that team selects in the first half of the first round, plus a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds.

Type-B free agents are Jeff Kent, Casey Blake, Brad Penny, Greg Maddux and Joe Beimel. The Dodgers would receive a sandwich pick for losing any of them, but only if the club offers the player salary arbitration and he declines.

The players they would most likely offer arbitration to are Ramirez, Lowe and Blake. Rafael Furcal and Chan Ho Park are two of the club's seven non-ranking free agents for which compensation does not apply.

Ken Gurnick is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

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